NASA, Scientists Fear Time Is Running Out to Deflect Incoming Asteroid. Emergency Actions Being Taken

WCTU CLEVELAND 13 — NASA and international space agencies have taken emergency action to study asteroid 2024 YR4 as its probability of striking Earth in 2032 has increased to 1-in-43, or 2.3%. The asteroid, first detected in December 2024 by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System station in Chile, has quickly risen to the top of NASA's and the European Space Agency’s (ESA) risk lists.

To determine the potential impact and necessary response, astronomers have been granted use of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) to refine estimates of the asteroid's size and trajectory. The asteroid is believed to be between 40 and 90 meters (130–300 feet) wide, comparable in size to the Statue of Liberty or Big Ben. Its impact could be on the scale of the 1908 Tunguska event, which flattened 830 square miles (2,150 square km) of Siberian forest.

“2024 YR4 could be 40 meters across and very reflective, or 90 meters across and not very reflective,” an ESA spokesperson said. “It is very important that we improve our size estimate because the hazard represented by a 40-meter asteroid is very different from that of a 90-meter asteroid.”

The JWST will take two observations of the asteroid—one in March when it reaches peak brightness and another in May before it travels out of range. These observations will allow scientists to measure the asteroid’s heat radiation, giving a more accurate size estimate than traditional optical measurements. The data will be made publicly available and shared with planetary defense organizations.

NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), which successfully altered the trajectory of the asteroid Dimorphos in 2022, has proven that kinetic impactors can shift an asteroid’s path. However, experts caution that YR4 may not be an ideal candidate for such a mission due to the limited time available.

Dr. Robin George Andrews, a UK-based volcanologist, warned that it might already be too late to deflect 2024 YR4. “So much could go wrong if we try and hit it with something like DART,” he said. He explained that many asteroids are loose rubble piles, meaning an impact could break them apart into multiple fragments that could still pose a threat. Additionally, planning and executing an asteroid deflection mission typically takes a decade or more, and YR4 is expected to return in just eight years.

“If we accidentally deflect it but not enough to make it avoid the planet, it could still hit Earth, just somewhere else that wasn’t originally going to be impacted,” Andrews said. He noted that while YR4 is not an extinction-level threat, its energy upon impact could be equivalent to 15 megatons of TNT—100 times the power of the Hiroshima bomb.

Potential impacts would be localized but devastating. At peak pressure, the impact could demolish heavily built concrete structures. Residential buildings could collapse within a three-mile radius, while shattered windows and light injuries could extend even further.

Despite these concerns, scientists remain optimistic that additional data will confirm the asteroid’s trajectory will shift away from Earth. NASA and ESA stress that early detection is the key to planetary defense and continue to refine asteroid tracking and deflection techniques.

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